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Advanced Football Analytics Find Statistical Advantage to Going for it on First Down
Facts over feelings.
By Meg Reid
NEW YORK—A new study from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats partnership uncovered a pattern football fans might find surprising.
After employing machine learning to analyze data from the past 104 years of NFL football, statisticians found definitive evidence that teams that attempt to advance the ball on first down end up winning more games than teams that punt immediately whenever they are faced with possessing the ball.
Conventional wisdom among NFL coaches has held for decades that it is not worth risking turning the ball over to the other team by going for it on first down, especially when their team is in the team’s own territory. However, recent advances in big data analytics have caused coaches to rethink many long-held beliefs about play calling.
For example, last year, statisticians found that turning the ball over is negatively associated with a team’s chance of winning, which has caused the Cleveland Browns to reevaluate their strategy.
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Even those who have been coaching for many years expressed surprise at the new finding that going for it on first down increases a team’s chance of winning.
“It really is hard to believe that is necessary for winning games. It goes against everything I’ve been doing, especially the past two years,” remarked New York Giants Head Coach Brian Daboll. “Does this mean I need to find a quarterback who can play offense?”
While Daboll is not the only one who is skeptical, some NFL fans feel vindicated, expressing appreciation that statisticians have finally verified what they’ve known all along.
“Ask my ex-wife what I’ve been yelling at the TV for the past 20 years,” Philadelphia Eagles fan Chad Dorfman reacted before yelling the phrase “GO FOR IT!” seventy-three times in a row.
There might be more surprises in store for fans and coaches alike, as the researchers behind this analysis plan to use AI to examine other strategic decisions football coaches make.
“Given this finding, we want to look into other assumptions, even ideas like going for it on fourth down will result in a better chance of winning,” a representative for Next Gen Stats explained, “even though that one is pretty much a no-brainer.”
Tune in tomorrow for more mind-blowing analysis from End of the Bench.
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